IATA: Passengers are back, but capacity and supply chain issues remain

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its annual passenger market results for 2025, confirming that global demand for air travel has returned to stable, historic growth rates. Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), increased by 5,3% compared to 2024, while capacity grew at almost the same pace (+5,2%). The average load factor reached a record 83,6%.

Although the numbers are encouraging at first glance, IATA warns that high load factors mask structural problems in supply chains and the limited availability of new aircraft, which also has direct consequences for the tourism sector.

Europe: stable growth and high occupancy

European carriers recorded a 6% increase in international traffic in 2025 compared to the previous year. Capacity increased by 5,9%, while the load factor rose to 84,1%, placing Europe among the regions with the highest level of capacity utilization.

A particularly strong performance was achieved in December, when international demand in Europe grew by 8,4% year-on-year. For the tourism sector, this means stable demand from the main source markets, but limited scope for further supply growth without structural changes to the fleet and infrastructure.

Global picture: Asia leads, North America slows down

Globally, the Asia-Pacific region achieved the fastest growth in international traffic (+10,9%) and the highest load factor (84,4%), ending 2025 as the most dynamic region. The Middle East also recorded strong growth (+6,7%), while North America had the weakest performance, with traffic growth of just 2,1%.

Latin America recorded strong demand growth (+8,6%), but with a decline in load factors, while Africa, although with the lowest load factor (74,9%), achieved a record level of load for the region.

Domestic markets: growth slows, but record levels remain

Domestic growth slowed in 2025 from the strong recovery in 2024, but overall volumes remained at record levels. Brazil stood out with an 11,1% increase in domestic demand, while the US domestic market recorded a 0,6% decline.

India maintained the highest domestic load factor (85,2%), despite a decline from the previous year, confirming strong internal mobility, but also pressure on capacity.

Supply chains and sustainability as key challenges

Commenting on the results, IATA Director General Willie Walsh noted that the industry has returned to historical growth patterns, but that two challenges have come to the fore - decarbonization and supply chains. Walsh warns that aircraft delivery delays, insufficient maintenance capacity and rising costs will exceed $11 billion in additional burdens on airlines by 2025. As a temporary solution, carriers have been keeping older aircraft in the fleet and maximizing flight occupancy.

What does this mean for European tourism?

For European tourism, these data carry a double message. On the one hand, travel demand remains strong and stable, which is good news for destinations. On the other hand, limited capacity, delays in fleet renewal and sustainability pressures may limit the growth of flight availability, especially in peak seasons.

IATA expects 2026 to mark a turning point in the stabilization of supply chains. For the tourism sector, this means that collaboration with carriers, realistic capacity planning and understanding the limitations of the aviation industry will be key to sustainable growth in the years to come.