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How will global geopolitical tensions affect the 2026 tourist season and demand for Croatia? Analysis by the Director of the Institute of Tourism, Dr. Damir Krešić, shows that despite global uncertainty, there are reasons for moderate optimism, but also clear warnings regarding price competitiveness and value for money.
While the world's tourism industry is gathering these days at the leading global travel fair ITB Berlin, the event takes place in an atmosphere of heightened geopolitical tensions. War conflicts, trade uncertainties, a threatening energy crisis and a generally growing perception of global insecurity are increasingly prominent elements of the international environment in which tourism operates today.
In such a context, the question naturally arises: What does all this mean for tourist demand for Croatia in the 2026 season?
The director of the Institute of Tourism addressed this topic, Dr. Damir Krešić, who published an analytical review on social media under the title “Global uncertainties and the 2026 tourist season: an analytical look at Croatia's position”.
Continuing his analysis, Krešić highlights several key factors that could affect the 2026 tourist season.
The first one relates to resilience of tourism demand. As he states, experiences from previous crises - from the pandemic to the war in Ukraine and the escalation in the Middle East, show that Croatian tourism generally maintains a stable level of demand, while in periods of global uncertainty there is often a redistribution of tourist flows towards destinations that are perceived as safe and accessible.
Another important element is structural comparative advantages of Croatia. Security, proximity to export markets, good road connections and a relatively diversified tourist offer. At the same time, it warns that erosion of price competitiveness in recent years may pose a more serious challenge for Croatian tourism than the current geopolitical instability, especially if conflicts in certain regions calm down in the meantime.
The third factor, as Krešić states, refers to structural change in consumer behavior. The last five years, according to his analysis, have confirmed the trend towards travel becoming an increasingly integral part of the lifestyle of European consumers, rather than a luxury good that is first postponed in times of crisis. In such circumstances, tourist demand adapts; the choice of destination, duration of stay or mode of travel changes, but the decision to travel itself, as a rule, does not disappear.
When it comes to season 2026., according to this analytical view, it is realistic to expect a stable year, but with certain structural shifts. If there are no serious escalations that would directly affect the European area or key transport corridors, the tourist season could develop relatively stably. At the same time, it is likely that guests will plan trips in a shorter time horizon, be more sensitive to prices and additionally value the perception of destination safety.
In conclusion, Krešić emphasizes that the current global instability represents a challenge, but also a reminder of the elements that destinations can directly influence. A high level of service quality, a well-thought-out pricing policy and clear value for money, in his view, remain key factors of competitiveness. It is precisely these elements, combined with the perception of Croatia as a safe and accessible destination, that can contribute to another successful tourist season.
